Taiwan: A likely one-off rate hike
Rates on hold after surprise hike to 2%.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying22 Mar 2024
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Taiwan's central bank unexpectedly raised the benchmark discount rate by 12.5bps to 2.00% at the March 21 meeting, contrary to both consensus and our forecast of no rate change. The CBC stated that the hike aimed to contain inflation expectations, which have been rising due to the government's planned electricity price hike. Additionally, the CBC revised the 2024 inflation forecast to 2.16% from 1.89%, and the GDP growth forecast to 3.22% from 3.12%.

We view this rate hike as a one-time measure to curb inflation expectations. A 10-15% increase in electricity prices in April is expected to boost annual CPI inflation by 0.1-0.3ppt, considering the second-round effects. CPI inflation is projected to remain stable at 2.3% YoY in 2Q-3Q and ease to 1.9% in 4Q.

We also interpret this rate hike as a delayed move of normalization. The governor has mentioned 1.5-2.0% as the new normal for inflation, citing structural factors like the green transition. Previously, during the 1H22-1H23 tightening cycle, we had anticipated the CBC to raise rates to 2.00% in 2Q23, which did not materialize until now. 

We expect the CBC to maintain the discount rate at 2.00% for the rest of 2024 and into 2025. 

 

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]

 



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