HKD rates – HIBORs to retreat after quarter-end
Lower on Fed cut expectations.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse22 Mar 2024
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HIBORs are expected to ease on entering April. Firstly, the temporary boost from quarter-end liquidity needs should subside. Secondly, HKD rates will retreat alongside the reversing Fed Fund rate cut expectation. After the FOMC meeting this week, the HKD IRS curve has been shifting downward in tandem with the USD OIS curve, indicating lower HKD funding costs in the coming months. Thirdly, demand for HKD could weaken if the rebound of the Hang Seng Index appears to be short-lived. After all, a sustained asset market recovery requires an apparent improvement in the Chinese economy and further stimulus.

Yet, the spreads against the SOFR counterparts should remain steady. SOFR rates will retreat as we approach the first rate cut. Referencing to the 2019 rate cut cycle, the spread should hover around -50bps if the rate cut cycle is relatively modest (see: The Fed telegraphs soft-landing / Goldilocks). We expect a similar HIBOR-SOFR dynamic to repeat. Note that the Fed only reduced the target rate by 75bps before the onset of global COVID outbreak in March 2020.



Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

 



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