Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Asia / GDP

This Week: China’s 1Q GDP in focus

April 16, 2018
This Week: China’s 1Q GDP in focus

As per our Nowcasting model, China’s real GDP grew by over 7% in 1Q. But ingredients for a slowdown in 2Q are in place, given the soft March figures.

India / Rates

Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

April 05, 2018
Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

In a surprising move, India’s central bank took a very dovish view on the inflation path for the year while keeping benchmark rates unchanged on Thursday.

Taiwan / GDP

Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

April 04, 2018
Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

The repercussions on Taiwan, a main supplier of electronic components to China, should be smaller than initially feared. We will be watching this space.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.46.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.67.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.95.05.0
Philippines**5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.32.62.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.74.6
Indonesia6.43.53.84.04.5
Malaysia2.12.13.93.53.0
Philippines**1.41.32.94.23.5
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.01.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone00.21.51.31.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.61.0
United States***0.11.32.11.81.8
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*6.396.496.606.566.52
Hong Kong7.827.837.837.827.82
India64.7065.9067.0067.2067.40
Indonesia13,59613,74713,90013,96014,019
Malaysia3.954.084.204.184.16
Philippines52.653.354.054.454.8
Singapore**1.321.351.381.371.37
South Korea1,0821,1211,1601,1481,136
Taiwan
Thailand31.832.833.933.633.3
Vietnam***22,74522,83222,92022,97023,020
Eurozone1.231.191.161.171.19
Japan108112116115114

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.006.006.25
Indonesia4.254.254.254.504.75
Malaysia3.253.253.503.503.50
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.75
Singapore**1.401.651.902.152.15
South Korea1.501.751.752.002.00
Taiwan1.381.381.381.501.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

GBP a “sell the fact” on BOE hike; curve steepening risks i...

April 19, 2018
Global

The rally in the British pound, the best performer this year, is starting to show signs of fatigue. Meanwhile, Indian 10Y bonds are retaining recent losses. For more on currencies and rates, check ou...

Europe / GDP

Eurozone politics, US tariffs, and the ECB

March 05, 2018
Europe

Concerns over the results of the Italian elections, a potential trade war with the US, and the strength of the Euro could keep investors on edge this week.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Insights

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

April 20, 2018

DBS tracks developments in the economies, foreign exchange and fixed income markets of the Asia-11 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam...

Key Summary Points
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