Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

China / Economics

China: Stable PMI, but policy support to continue

August 31, 2018
China: Stable PMI, but policy support to continue

August’s PMI suggests some early positive impact from the government’s policy shift. We expect more concerted policy fine-tuning from various government bodies to follow in the coming mon...

Singapore / Rates

SG: Curve flattening

August 23, 2018
SG: Curve flattening

The SGS curve is poised to flatten.

Singapore / GDP

Singapore chart book – Speed bump ahead

August 21, 2018
Singapore chart book – Speed bump ahead

GDP growth in 2H18 will likely ease to below 2%, given an exceptionally high base in 2H17 as well as rising headwinds on the external front.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.66.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.77.4
Indonesia4.95.05.15.05.2
Malaysia5.04.25.94.74.5
Philippines**5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.33.02.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.64.7
Indonesia6.43.53.83.64.0
Malaysia2.12.13.91.32.5
Philippines**1.41.32.96.05.5
Singapore-0.5-0.50.60.71.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.51.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.31.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone0.00.21.51.41.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.81.0
United States***0.11.32.12.52.0
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

2Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19
China*6.626.856.956.906.85
Hong Kong7.857.857.857.847.83
India68.5072.5073.0073.5074.00
Indonesia14,33015,00015,05015,10015,150
Malaysia4.044.164.244.224.20
Philippines53.454.054.555.055.5
Singapore**1.361.381.421.411.40
South Korea1,1151,1501,2001,1901,180
Taiwan
Thailand33.033.033.533.833.6
Vietnam***22,93823,30023,35023,40023,450
Eurozone1.171.141.121.131.14
Japan111112115114113

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

2Q183Q184Q181Q192Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kong
India6.256.506.506.756.75
Indonesia4.755.505.755.755.75
Malaysia3.253.253.253.253.25
Philippines3.504.004.504.755.00
Singapore**1.651.902.152.152.40
South Korea1.501.501.501.501.75
Taiwan1.381.381.501.501.63
Thailand1.501.501.501.752.00
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.506.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / FX

Macro Strategy

September 21, 2018
Global

Keeping the faith in the USD; UST 10Y yield above 3%

Global / GDP

Chart of the Week: US inflation on a mild uptrend

September 17, 2018
Global

Labour market continues to tighten and wages are picking up, which ought to push up inflation.

Insights and Analysis

Asia / GDP

Volatility and Market structure...

September 21, 2018

We think a large part of the government bond sell-off this year has to do with the structure of the market in the post-Lehman environment.

Key summary points
  • Bond market sell-off has taken place in strikingly low trading volume
  • A further rise in volatility is likely given the market structure
  • Non-bank financial sector has taken on risk taking activities from banks
  • Post-crisis regulatory environment may have made banks safer, but not the entire financial system

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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