Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Hong Kong / Rates

Déjà vu for HKD rates?

February 23, 2018
Déjà vu for HKD rates?

Short-term Hong Kong dollar rates could be in for déjà vu if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority expands bill issuances ahead of a likely Federal Reserve hike in March.

Singapore / Rates

Duration overhang

February 21, 2018
Duration overhang

Longer-term Singapore Government Securities are likely to be weighed down by supply overhang even if some relative value is starting to emerge.

Malaysia / GDP

Malaysia: Another stunning performance

February 14, 2018
Malaysia: Another stunning performance

The economy grew 5.9% YoY in 4Q17 despite a high base in 2016. We expect GDP growth to moderate to 5.0% in 2018 given a normalisation in global economic conditions.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201520162017e2018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.46.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.72.52.5
India*7.58.07.16.67.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.95.05.0
Philippines5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.63.02.7
South Korea2.82.83.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.82.4
Thailand2.93.23.94.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.52.22.2
Japan1.10.91.61.10.9
United States**2.61.52.32.62.5
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201520162017e2018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.74.6
Indonesia6.43.53.84.04.5
Malaysia2.12.13.83.53.0
Philippines1.41.83.23.63.8
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.01.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone00.21.51.31.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.61
United States**0.11.31.61.81.8
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*6.396.496.606.566.52
Hong Kong7.827.837.837.827.82
India64.765.967.0067.267.4
Indonesia13,59613,74713,90013,96014,019
Malaysia3.954.084.204.184.16
Philippines52.653.354.054.454.8
Singapore**1.321.351.381.371.37
South Korea1,0821,1211,1601,1481,136
Taiwan
Thailand31.832.833.933.633.3
Vietnam***22,74522,83222,92022,97023,020
Eurozone1.231.191.161.171.19
Japan108112116115114
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.006.006.25
Indonesia4.254.254.254.504.75
Malaysia3.253.253.503.503.50
Philippines3.253.503.754.004.25
Singapore**1.401.651.902.152.15
South Korea1.501.751.752.002.00
Taiwan1.381.381.381.501.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.50
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States1.752.002.002.252.25
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

Fed minutes push up yields and the dollar

February 22, 2018
Global

More bullish than expected, the minutes of the previous Fed meeting pushed the 10Y yield to 2.95% and helped the greenback extend its recovery. For more on currencies and rates, check out our Overnig...

Global / GDP

This Week: Inflation data out of HK, Singapore, Japan

February 19, 2018
Global

Inflation is likely to have remained stable in both Hong Kong and Singapore but crept up in Japan.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Insights

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

February 23, 2018

DBS tracks developments in the economies, foreign exchange and fixed income markets of the Asia-11 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam...

Key Summary Points
  • Access our list of reports
  • Get up-to-date analysis of economic data
  • Get our insights on the G3 and Asia-11 economies, currencies and fixed income space

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