Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / Inflation

India’s inflation tests past 4% target; production softens

December 13, 2017
India’s inflation tests past 4% target; production softens

India’s CPI inflation rose to a 15-month high of 4.9% in November; incoming data suggests December’s reading will surge past 5% vs the central bank’s target of 4%. The central bank will be cautious o...

Philippines / Rates

Philippines: Fitch plays catch-up

December 11, 2017
Philippines: Fitch plays catch-up

Fitch Ratings upgraded the Philippines’ sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB’, with a stable outlook, on Monday. We concur with Fitch’s assessment that the economy has put up “strong and consistent macroe...

India / Rates

RBI − a long pause likely

December 07, 2017
RBI − a long pause likely

We are of the view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to tighten policy in a hurry, but recognises that the balance of risk is tilted toward tightening.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201520162017f2018f2019f
China6.96.76.86.46.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.72.52.5
India*7.58.07.16.67.2
Indonesia4.95.05.15.35.4
Malaysia5.04.25.75.05.0
Philippines5.96.96.76.76.7
Singapore2.02.03.23.02.7
South Korea2.82.83.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.42.52.4
Thailand2.93.23.84.04.0
Vietnam6.76.26.66.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.11.91.9
Japan1.111.61.10.9
United States**2.61.52.22.42.5
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201520162017f2018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.02.5
India*6.04.94.53.44.2
Indonesia6.43.53.84.04.5
Malaysia2.12.13.73.53.0
Philippines1.41.83.23.63.8
Singapore-0.5-0.50.61.01.8
South Korea0.71.02.01.81.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.01.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.51.5
Vietnam0.62.73.73.63.8
Eurozone00.21.51.21.6
Japan0.8-0.10.40.61
United States**0.11.31.61.81.8
* refers to year ending March ** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

4Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18
China*6.616.746.816.886.81
Hong Kong7.817.827.827.837.820
India64.5065.2066.1067.0067.20
Indonesia13,54613,70013,80013,90014000
Malaysia4.084.284.304.324.3
Philippines50.751.652.052.452.8
Singapore**1.351.381.391.401.39
South Korea1,0931,1501,1571,1641157
Taiwan
Thailand32.633.834.134.434.1
Vietnam***22,71622,82022,87022,92022,970
Eurozone1.181.141.121.11.12
Japan112116119122121
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

4Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
India6.006.006.006.006.00
Indonesia4.254.254.254.254.50
Malaysia3.003.003.003.253.50
Philippines3.253.503.753.754.00
Singapore**1.401.401.651.902.15
South Korea1.501.501.751.752.00
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.50
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.25
Eurozone00000.00
Japan-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10
United States1.51.51.7522.25
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Currencies

Yellen is unlikely to rock the boat

December 13, 2017
US

We cannot see Fed Chair Janet Yellen upending longstanding Fed guidance with a sudden spurt of hawkishness in her last policy statement this week. For more on currencies and rates, check out our Over...

Global / GDP

This Week: Moves by central banks, US CPI, and China’s new ...

December 11, 2017
Global

We’ll be focusing on moves by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, inflation in the US, and China’s new yuan loans, which may jump on year-end demand.

Insights and Analysis

China / GDP

‘Goldilocks’ effect largely achieved...

December 13, 2017

The Chinese economy will likely conclude the year with 6.8% real GDP growth – despite higher interest rates. Inflation is largely contained even though a tremendous amount of liquidity is locked up b...

Key summary points
  • Inflationary pressure is subdued and growth is steady
  • Deleveraging to persist, which would push rates up further

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There were no dcr path found

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