Country / Indonesia

Indonesia

Group Research / April 01, 2019

Photo Credit - AFP

Indonesia
 20172018e2019f2020f
GDP growth, % YoY5.15.25.05.1
CPI inflation, % YoY3.83.23.23.4
 2Q193Q194Q191Q202Q20
Exchange rates, end of period14,12614,19514,50014,55014,600
Policy interest rates, end of period6.005.255.005.005.00
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Fiscal lever could sustain growth momentum at its potential at 5.0%.IndonesiaGrowth, Rates/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/082019/190816_insights_thumb_Indonesia_Surfacing_economic_weakness.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/082019/190816_insights_Indonesia_Surfacing_economic_weakness.xmlIndonesia: Surfacing economic weaknessAugust 16, 2019March trade balance recorded a surplus, marking two consecutive months of surplus.IndonesiaGDP/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/042019/190418_insights_thumb_pressure_eases_on_indonesias_trade_balance.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/042019/190418_insights_pressure_eases_on_Indonesias_trade_balance.xmlPressure eases on Indonesia’s trade balanceApril 18, 2019The Indonesian second presidential debate on energy, food, and infrastructure was held on 17 Feb 2019.IndonesiaGDP/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/022019/190220_insights_image_Indonesia_election_watch_food_energy_and_infrastrcture.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/022019/190220_insights_indonesia_election_watch_food_energy_and_infrastructure.xmlIndonesia election watch: energy, food, and infrastructureFebruary 20, 2019Indonesia Economics DailyEconomicsView AllRead Morenotaligned10After 75bps cumulative cut this year, we expect another 25bps cut in 4Q. We think that risks are tilted towards more easing if economic activity does not pick up early next year.IndonesiaMonetary, Growth/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/092019/190924_insights_thumb_Indonesia.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/092019/190924_insights_Indonesia.xmlIndonesia: Monetary and macropru for growthSeptember 24, 2019Slowing growth seems to be the main factor for the Bank Indonesia pre-emptive rate cut. BI may only be comfortable to match the Fed pace going forward.IndonesiaMonetary, Rates/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/082019/190823_insights_thumb_indonesia.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/082019/190823_insights_indonesia.xmlIndonesia: Another pre-emptive rate cutAugust 23, 2019Conditions are aligned for Bank Indonesia to embark on an easing cycle, with a cut likely to come as soon as Thursday. We think that BI could cut by 25bps in 2019 and 50bps in 2020.IndonesiaRates/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/072019/190717_insights_thumb_Indonesia_rate_cuts_in_the_horizon.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/072019/190717_insights_Indonesia_rate_cuts_in_the_horizon.xmlIndonesia : Rate cuts in the horizonJuly 17, 2019Indonesia EquitiesInsightsEquitiesView AllRead Morenotaligned8External factors continue to drive the volatility in the equity market and we don’t think they will go away in the near term.IndonesiaEquities/iwov-resources/aics/images/MODEL-PORT/201803/000_CJ0MW_620.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/000000/000000_insights_indonesia_model_portfolio.xmlIndonesia Equity PicksSeptember 16, 2019S&P upgrade of Indonesia’s sovereign credit a potential upturn for foreign investments flows, although other external pressures still weigh heavy in the near term.IndonesiaEquities/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/062019/190613_strategy_thumb_indonesia_monthly.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/062019/190613_strategy_indonesia_monthly.xmlIndonesia Monthly Strategy: Pedalling against the tideJune 13, 2019Jokowi expected to emerge victorious based on preliminary quick vote counts, and is set to serve as Indonesia’s President for a second term.IndonesiaEquities/iwov-resources/aics/images/AICS/AIO/en/042019/190418_insights_thumb_strategy_indonesia.jpg/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/042019/190418_insights_strategy_indonesia.xmlMarket Strategy: Re-rating on Jokowi’s winApril 18, 2019Indonesia MarketsMarketsView AllRead Morenotaligned0

Disclaimers and Important Notices

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation & the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only & is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Group, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Group or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Group & its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking & other banking or finan­cial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC & Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

PT Bank DBS Indonesia, DBS Bank Tower, 33rd floor, Ciputra World 1, Jalan Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5, Jakarta, 12940, Indonesia. Tel: 62-21-2988-4000. Company Registration No. 09.03.1.64.96422.